Gordon Growth Model Calculator (DDM)
The Gordon Growth Model (Gordon-Shapiro Dividend Discount Model, DDM) is the simplest closed-form stock valuation formula: assume dividends grow at a constant rate g forever and discount at a required return r to get the intrinsic per-share value P = D₁ / (r − g). The tool supports three solve modes: (1) given D₁, r, g compute the intrinsic price; (2) back-solve the growth rate g implied by today's market price; (3) back-solve the required return r implied by the price. The result also decomposes return into dividend yield (r − g), capital-gain yield (g) and total return (r), and reports a ±1pp sensitivity so you can see how fragile the valuation is to your assumptions.
Check inputs: D₁ and price > 0; r and g must be numbers; the model requires r > g.
Intrinsic value (per share)
$41.67
Sensitivity (ΔP per +1pp change)
—
The narrower the (r − g) gap, the more fragile the valuation — which is precisely why DDM is a poor fit for high-growth names.
Formula: Gordon 1959 (Rev. Econ. Stat. 41:99). CFA Curriculum Level II / Brealey, Myers, Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance 13th ed. §4-3. Educational use only — not investment advice.
Formula
P₀ = D₁ / (r − g) Rearrangements: g = r − D₁ / P r = D₁ / P + g Dividend yield = D₁ / P = r − g Capital-gain yield = g Total return = r
- · The model strictly requires r > g — if g ≥ r the formula diverges (P → ∞), reflecting the fact that perpetual growth above the discount rate is economically impossible.
- · Upper bound on g: in the long run g should not exceed nominal GDP growth (≈ 4–6 %), otherwise the firm would eventually overtake the entire economy. Practitioners usually pick g in the 2–4 % range (long-run inflation + real growth).
- · r is most often estimated via CAPM: r = R_f + β × (R_m − R_f). As of 2024, the US 10-year R_f ≈ 4 % and the market risk premium R_m − R_f ≈ 5–6 %.
- · D₁ must be the forward dividend, not the trailing D₀ that was just paid. If you only have D₀, multiply by (1 + g) for D₁.
- · For companies that pay no dividend or pay erratically (high-growth tech, biotech), the DDM does not apply — use a two-stage DDM, free-cash-flow models (FCFE / FCFF) or relative valuation (EV/EBITDA) instead.
- · The narrower the (r − g) gap, the more sensitive P is to both r and g (dP/dg scales with 1 / (r − g)²). Always run a sensitivity table; never rely on a single point estimate.
- · References: Gordon MJ, Rev. Econ. Stat. 1959;41:99; Brealey, Myers, Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance, 13th ed., §4-3; Damodaran, Investment Valuation, 3rd ed., Ch. 13; CFA Curriculum Level II Equity Valuation.
Frequently asked
Why does the Gordon model usually under-value tech and growth stocks?
Because the model assumes dividends grow at a single, low, perpetual rate g — exactly the opposite of a tech / growth profile: (1) many of these names pay no dividend at all (Alphabet only started paying in 2024); (2) those that do are clearly in a high-growth phase, often at 20–40 % per year, far above any plausible discount rate r, so theoretically g ≥ r and the formula blows up. Practitioners use a two-stage DDM (a high-growth phase followed by steady-state), a three-stage DDM, or switch to free-cash-flow valuation, then triangulate with P/E, EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales multiples. The classic Gordon model is best as a first-cut for mature, low-β, high-payout names — utilities, consumer staples, big banks, REITs.
How do I pick a sensible g — can I just use the trailing 5-year dividend CAGR?
A common mistake is to drop a trailing 5-year dividend CAGR straight into g. You are estimating the *perpetual* rate, not the recent past. A mature firm that grew at 8 % over five years will not grow at 8 % forever — extrapolated out 50 years it would exceed global GDP. The discipline: g ≤ long-run nominal GDP growth (≈ 4–6 % in developed economies; potentially higher in emerging markets). Damodaran caps g at the risk-free rate R_f, on the grounds that long R_f reflects long-run inflation + real growth expectations. Practitioner ranges sit at 2–4 %. For banks, utilities and other mature names, 2.5–3.5 % is usually reasonable; for emerging-market or cyclical companies, prefer a two-stage DDM — 5–10 years of explicit high growth then a 3 % perpetual steady state.
What is the point of back-solving the implied growth rate?
Back-solving the implied g (g = r − D₁ / P) is a powerful sanity check: it tells you what perpetual growth rate the market must be implicitly assuming to justify the current price. For example: a blue-chip at P = $100, D₁ = $4, CAPM r = 9 % implies g = 9 % − 4 % = 5 %. If you believe the firm cannot sustain growth above 3 % long-term (market saturation, demographics, regulation), the stock is clearly expensive. Conversely, if the implied g is only 1–2 % and you expect continued share gains, that is a buy signal. CFA Level II calls this "market-implied growth analysis" and it is a workhorse for active managers and credit analysts alike.
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