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Finance

Payback Period Calculator (Simple & Discounted)

Payback period is the most common capital-budgeting metric: how many years it takes to recoup the initial cash outlay. Simple payback ignores the time value of money; discounted payback uses your discount rate to convert future cash flows to today's dollars, giving a far more honest read of the project's break-even. Enter the investment, expected level annual cash inflow, discount rate and horizon — the calculator returns both payback periods, the terminal Net Present Value (NPV), and a complete year-by-year cumulative table. Useful for solar installs, equipment purchases, shop expansions, new product lines, and make-or-buy decisions.

Simple payback

Discounted payback

Net Present Value at horizon

Year-by-year cumulative cash flow

Year Cash flow Cumulative (nominal) Cumulative (discounted)

Assumes the investment occurs at year 0 with level cash inflows at the end of each year. For irregular cash flows you can re-run the tool with the average or use the discounted-cash-flow tab in a spreadsheet.

Formula

Simple payback: t = Initial ÷ CF (level cash flows) Discounted payback: smallest T such that Σ CF/(1+r)^t ≥ Initial (t = 1…T); for level flows the closed form is T = −ln(1 − Initial·r/CF) ÷ ln(1+r), requires CF > Initial × r Net Present Value at horizon: NPV(T) = −Initial + Σ CF/(1+r)^t (t = 1…T)

Frequently asked

What is the difference between simple and discounted payback?

Simple payback just adds up the yearly inflows until the cumulative equals the initial outlay — for level flows, it is simply Initial ÷ CF. Discounted payback acknowledges that "a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in 5 years" and divides each future inflow by (1 + r)^t before accumulating. Example: $50,000 investment, $10,000/year inflow → simple payback = 5.0 years at any rate; discounted payback at 8 % = ~6.6 years. The gap widens as the discount rate rises. Whenever you are comparing projects with different cash-flow profiles, prefer the discounted version because it automatically penalises late-arriving cash.

Is a short payback period always best?

No. Payback only measures how fast your money returns; it ignores the total return. A 3-year payback project may yield only +20 % cumulative profit, while a 5-year-payback project may return 3× over 10 years. Payback is most useful for: (1) liquidity screening — shorter = less risk of being capital-trapped, great for small businesses; (2) projects with high uncertainty (new tech, new markets) — earlier recoupment means less exposure to wrong-future risk. But the *primary* ranking metric for capital projects is NPV, with IRR as backup. Treat payback as a liquidity sanity check, not as the lone decision criterion.

Why does the discounted payback say "Not within horizon"?

Two possible reasons. (1) Your horizon is too short — e.g. $50,000 / $10,000 / 8 % takes ~6.6 years; if you set a 5-year horizon, the cumulative simply has not reached the initial yet. (2) The more serious case: your annual cash flow does not even cover the "rent" on the capital at your discount rate — i.e. CF ≤ Initial × r. Example: $100,000 invested, $5,000/year, 10 % discount → you would need at least $10,000/year just to keep up with the discount drag, so the discounted cumulative never reaches $100,000 no matter how long the horizon. The tool surfaces the minimum cash flow required in that case.

Can NPV be positive even when the project does not pay back within the horizon?

Yes — they measure different things. NPV adds up *all* discounted cash flows minus the initial outlay; if that sum is positive, the project is value-creating. Simple payback asks when the *undiscounted* cumulative equals the initial outlay. With a short horizon the cumulative may not reach the initial outlay, yet NPV could still be positive if you assume a terminal/residual value or use a very low discount rate. The tool flags "Not within horizon" when cumulative cash flow has not caught up, but separately reports the current NPV. The practical implication: a positive-NPV project with long payback is value-creating but ties up capital — make sure you can fund the wait.

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